Racing
© Jonathan Borba
Formula 1 arrives in Miami for round four with hot, stable conditions expected through Saturday but a rising chance of scattered Sunday rain that could turn a heat-soaked Sprint weekend into the season’s most strategically unpredictable race so far.
The forecast points to a largely settled start at the Miami International Autodrome. Friday should be hot and sunny at around 30°C, with only a negligible chance of rain, giving teams reliable conditions for the weekend’s only practice session before Sprint Qualifying. Saturday is also expected to stay dry, with sunshine and cloud, temperatures reaching 31 to 32°C, and little sign of showers disrupting either the Sprint or qualifying.
That should make heat the first major challenge. Track temperatures are expected to be punishing for both tyres and drivers, and the limited running of a Sprint weekend leaves little margin for teams trying to understand how their cars behave in those conditions.
Sunday is where the picture changes. Temperatures are still forecast to hover around 30°C, but both forecasting models indicate a growing chance of scattered afternoon showers, with rain probabilities rising into the 30 to 40 per cent range. Any rain is not expected to last long, yet short, sharp downpours could quickly transform the race and force immediate strategy calls, from a switch to intermediates or even full wets before a return to dry running.
That uncertainty lands at an important moment in the season. Miami is the second Sprint weekend of 2026 and the first event to run under revised energy-deployment regulations. Formula 1 has extended Free Practice 1 to 90 minutes instead of the usual 60 so drivers and teams can get used to the changes before the second session becomes Sprint Qualifying.
The weekend also follows a break of more than a month after two race cancellations, giving teams an unusual amount of time to rework their cars. That has made the pecking order harder to read than usual heading into the fourth round. Ferrari is expected to bring a major package of updates, McLaren is also set for significant changes, and Red Bull has prepared a large upgrade set that could move it closer to the front of the chasing group.
Mercedes remains difficult to discount after Kimi Antonelli won at Suzuka ahead of Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc to take the championship lead. But its position comes with a complication after the FIA banned the team from using what was described as a grey-area exploitation zone of its engine, adding another variable to a weekend already shaped by technical change and limited preparation time.
Miami has also become an important test of where the balance of power really sits. McLaren arrives at a circuit where it has won the past two editions, with Piastri victorious last season after Norris won in 2024. Max Verstappen remains the race’s only multiple winner, having taken the first two Miami Grands Prix in 2022 and 2023.
With revised rules, fresh upgrades, a compressed Sprint format and the threat of late rain hanging over race day, Miami offers one of the clearest chances yet for the order established at Suzuka to shift again.